Cognititve Cities

First published in http://www.livemint.com/Politics/wVQXVFXdROHPovCXU4awpK/Would-you-like-to-live-in-a-cognitive-city.html

Would you like to live in a cognitive city?

Imagine a city that senses your needs and provides personalized services without any human intervention

---

Jaijit Bhattacharya

There is an immediate need for smart cities to rapidly evolve into cities that will ‘learn’ from their ecosystem and fast-evolving context to autonomically respond to developing needs. Photo: Hindustan Times

Imagine the clock waking you up in the morning, not at a fixed hour but at a time that factors in the traffic and weather conditions to calculate how long it will take to reach the airport. If the flight is delayed, the airline will inform the clock, based on which the clock may recompute the time to wake you up.
Based on your flight bookings, a driverless car assigned by the city will calculate the time it will take to reach the airport so your clock can re-calculate the time to wake you up, ensuring you get enough time to get ready for your car to pick you up.
As the car drives you to the airport you slip into a Virtual Reality (VR) conference meeting in your in-car VR conference system. The car will also provide you on its screen the details of the appointments and tasks for the day as it is personalized for you.
This is a glimpse of the kind of city we will be living in the near future—a city that senses the needs of each citizen and each city asset, analyses the context by receiving feedback from multiple systems and provides all its citizen personalized services in a proactive manner through autonomic decisions, without human intervention.
This is a cognitive city.
While cities are trying to transform into smart cities, it would be worthwhile for some cities to leapfrog and actually aspire to become a cognitive city, rather than initiate a separate transformation in the future when it will have to dismantle the systems of the smart city in order to create a cognitive city.
The premise of a smart city is a one that is safe, secure, accessible, sustainable, energy efficient and IT-enabled. In the Indian context, it also implies cities that have a robust core urban infrastructure that is IT-enabled so that they can be monitored and be made more efficient. Such cities will give a better quality of life to their citizens.
However, what does a city manager do when inundated with video feeds from 10,000 cameras, sensor signals from a million devices and electronic information that the infrastructure is breaking down? Is it humanly possible to take decisions based on the smart-city infrastructure to take appropriate mitigating actions? How can cities decide on their own, without intervention of city managers?
Thus, there is an immediate need for smart cities to rapidly evolve into cities that will “learn” from their ecosystem and fast-evolving context to autonomically respond to developing needs, taking decisions without the explicit intervention of city managers. This would be a cognitive city. Such cognition will be based on an appropriate set of information at the right time, and will lead to a proactive and personalized city—a city that can detect a visually challenged citizen and automatically get its city surveillance to monitor the person as they walk through the city and which can communicate with the on-body systems of the person in order to guide them and proactively provide for what the person needs. This is what a cognitive city will do.
However, to reach this desired state, a city will require to have the five key pillars of a cognitive city: 1) Pervasive compute and communication fabric; 2) Personalized city; 3) Participative city; 4) Outcome-based city; and 5) Informed city. These pillars would allow the city to make autonomic decisions.
Delving deeper into the pillars, a pervasive compute and communication fabric ensures that everything and everyone is connected electronically and computation is embedded wherever information is being collected and transmitted. Therefore, it’s a city that has sensors embedded in all vehicles, flyovers, bridges, gates, poles etc; has compute embedded in surveillance cameras, sewage treatment plants etc. Such a pervasive compute and communication fabric would allow a city to analyse and contextualize the needs of its citizens on a real-time basis, thus enabling it to be a personalized, outcome-based and participative city that can manage itself autonomically.
This capability is what will allow the city to allocate a time slot for the driverless car to pick up a passenger for the airport, and be able to compute accurately the time required to reach a particular destination factoring in the traffic and the weather conditions, and factoring in the delay in the flight.
It would also enable the tap to communicate with the upstream water-treatment plant and inform it about the quality of water and therefore autonomically change the treatment plant parameters in order to generate acceptable quality of water.
The pervasive compute and communication fabric also allows automatic reporting of disruptions in utility services such as water or electricity, to the concerned city government department, and meter reading of utilities will happen through smart meters. The city should create an environment for information sharing, inter-operability, collaboration and seamless experience for each citizen. This will enable seamless communication between all things and all persons, facilitating the city to take autonomic decisions for providing personalized services.
The second pillar of being a personalized city implies a city with the capability to solve each citizen’s problems in a personalized manner, such as the airline syncing up with the city’s driverless car transportation system and with the citizen’s clock to orchestrate a series of actions which begin with the alarm clock deciding when to wake up the citizen so that they have enough time to get ready, catch the driverless car and reach the airport to catch the delayed flight—and all in the most efficient manner, minimizing resource consumption of the city. It would also include proactively provide services to citizens, such as enrolling a child in school as soon as the child becomes eligible to go to school, rather than making the parents run around applying to various schools. And of course, all schools will be equal, as education will be provided through the same set of technological and cognitive systems.
The third pillar, participative city, allows the citizens to participate effectively in its administration and policymaking. All citizens are heard and the city morphs as per the demands of the citizens, rather than being a fossilized city which is driven by the whims and fancies of a few appointed individuals. This would also ensure that the city stays relevant for its people and that it does not lose its vibrancy.
The fourth pillar is that of an outcome-based city. A city that is focused on outcomes—and not outputs—is an outcome-based city. Should the city focus on buying air conditioners for its offices or should it focus on ensuring 24-degree centigrade temperature for its offices? If it focuses on the former, it would do traditional purchasing and might end up with a sub-optimal solution of having an electricity guzzling air conditioner that requires heavy maintenance. If it focuses on the latter, then it might spend on upgrading the insulation of the walls and the windows and installing a district cooling system that is far more efficient and dramatically reduces energy consumption. This would be an outcome-based city.
Similarly, an outcome-based city will focus on ensuring people reach their offices and therefore plan to keep offices close to homes, and provide pedestrian and non-motorized transportation connections as well as appropriate public transportation, rather than ensuring that cars can travel smoothly from homes to distant offices.
The fifth and last pillar for a cognitive city is an informed city. For a city to take autonomic decisions supported by cognitive technologies, it will require accurate and real-time information about the status of urban infrastructure and urban services provided to each citizen, in order to understand and analyse the requirements of each citizen in terms of health, safety, education, infrastructure-based services such as safe drinking water, reliable electricity and sustainable, safe and reliable transportation and communication.
The information-centric city should ideally have three interconnected areas of focus—technology, human, institutional. It should know the time of your first meeting of the day so that it can get the city to ensure that you attend it on time; it should know when your daughter is ready to enrol in a school and automatically register her in the most appropriate school; it should know that air pollution levels are going up and start shutting down pollution-generating machines; it should detect which citizen needs psychiatric help and proactively provide that; who is having a heart attack as the embedded pacemaker sends out the information to the smart watch that connects to the city’s real-time medical system that autonomically instructs the patient to rush to the nearest hospital and also order a driverless ambulance to take the patient to the nearest hospital while sending the patient’s records to the available cardiac specialist and instructing the specialist to also rush to the hospital to attend to the incoming patient.
The city will also be able to find out if a flyover is going to fall, using information from strain gauges embedded in the flyovers, find that the water getting into a specific home is unfit for consumption as the pipe has developed a leak and rain water has mixed with the potable water, or tell people to avoid going to a particular part of the city because of rising air pollution, hence reduce the air pollution in the targeted locality. An informed city is a key pillar of the cognitive city.
Finally to enable these fundamentals of a cognitive city, the role of the government, the relationship between government agencies, non-government agencies and the citizens and their governance mechanisms are fundamental to the design and implementation of these initiatives and are considered institutional factors of an information-centric city.
A cognitive city will allow every citizen and business to receive services proactively from the city without needing to log in and request the service, have access to world-class education sitting at home, have their health monitored on a continuous basis, have their health problems detected prior to the occurrence, allow automatic reporting and remedial of household issues related to water, electricity, gas and waste through smart meters. Sensors in cars will detect and report potholes on the road which will trigger the road-bots to step in and fix the potholes. The possibilities are limitless.
But a city needs to be ‘architected’ to be a cognitive city. It would be interesting to note which city becomes the first Cognitive City.

The author is partner, government and infrastructure, at KPMG Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd.

Jaijit Bhattacharya

Topics: smart citytowninfrastructurepersonalized serviceurbanization

 

The Great Indian Minority: The MIddleclass

The Great Indian Middle Class: India’s New Political Constituency

The relationship and the divide between the majority and minority communities often drive the dynamics of electoral politics in most countries. In India the force exerted by majority and minority communities is particularly potent because of the multiple definitions of majority and minority owing to the existence of numerous caste, class, and religions in the country. The electoral politics in India is deeply entrenched in the politicization of these groups, especially the minority groups.

However, what emerges from a closer look at the Indian society is that there is no majority group. The Indian society is nothing but an amalgamation of the several minority groups. Even the majority population is split into sub-communities such as Bengalis (7.5% of Indian population), Marathi speakers (7% of Indian population), Oriyas (4% of Indian population), Gujaratis (4.5% of Indian population), and Tamils (6% of Indian population). Despite the strong community identities not all these minority groups have aligned and uniform voting preferences.

Traditionally the Muslim (13.4% of Indian population), and the Dalit (16.6% of Indian population) are the most influential minority groups in India due to their uniform voting preferences, often choosing to vote en-masse for a party. Any party that manages to get the votes of these two groups can have nearly one-third of Indian electorate in its pocket.

However, the emergence of a new group in recent years can potentially shift the entire landscape of Indian electoral politics. This group is the Indian middle class.

Different estimates put the Indian middle class between 250-350 million, which not only makes it 20-30 per cent of the Indian population, but also nearly as big as the population of the USA.  It is the class that constitutes the mainstream of the Indian demographic, and is a force to reckon with, which has been repeatedly acknowledged by the government, the corporate world, and the academia.  

Just as the majority groups and communities of the India, the great Indian middle class is often viewed as a uniform entity. The reality, however, is that it is a diverse and fractionalized group constituting of different religions, castes, and classes coming from distinct parts of the country.

The making of the Indian middle class has been an economic, rather than a social or a political process. At the same time it is the attitude rather than income that defines the Indian middle class. In spite of being composed of the minorities that have distinct and diverse social and political interests, what makes the middle class a uniform force are its aspirations, and tied economic interests. The key characteristics of the Indian middle class can said to be its distinct middle class values, concern with the welfare of the family, focus on being upwardly mobile, adherence to rules and regulations, a tolerant and less discriminating outlook, its reluctance to revolt yet confidence to be vocal about resentments, its sharp views on current affairs, and its cynicism. It’s these shared behavioural and aspirational attitudes that make the middle class a constituency in its own right - a constituency that is not only the largest, but also the fastest growing in India.

The political cynicism of the middle class is often taken to imply that the class plays a passive role in Indian electoral politics. However, the Indian middle class is not as dormant as it is perceived to be. In the last ten years this class has come into its own by more clearly defining its economic aspirations and social priorities. The growing social angst increasingly witnessed in urban areas, and demand for policies that ensure faster economic growth are testimony to its maturity, and emerging influence. The expansion of this class in the coming years will result in more equitable distribution of wealth while the insatiable appetite of this class for education, services, and consumer goods will fuel the economic growth of the country.

Until now the middle class has not been given political attention that is proportional to its size because of prevalent notions about its political cynicism, and low voter turnouts. A significant reason for the cynicism of the middle class is that no political party in India has yet considered it to be a political constituency in its own right, or engaged with it from a view of mobilizing it as a political force.  However, the time has come for the government to focus on this class.

This is the right time for political parties to start addressing the concerns and needs of the Indian middle class not only because it emerging as India’s largest constituency, but also because it is a fallacy to presume that this class cannot influence the turnout of an election. It has done so, and can continue to so, by not voting in the elections. As it can by beginning to vote.

What is needed is a dedicated strategy to get insights into the middle class, and its concerns. Attention to this class will help it to emerge out of its cynicism and become a more active player in the Indian electoral politics. Now, it’s merely a question of which political party decides to leverage on the potential of the great Indian middle class.

Smart Parking for Smart Cities

Published in https://issuu.com/urbanaworld/docs/urbana_jan_feb_2016_final.compresse

The ‘100 Smart Cities Mission’ of the Government of India identifies smart parking as one of the core infrastructure elements for a Smart City[1]. The increasing pace of motorization within Indian Cities in the last decade has led to an urgent need to address both on-street and off-street parking. A recent global study of parking in big cities across the world suggests that the average city driver spends an average of 18 to 20 minutes searching for parking[2], resulting in driver stress, wastage of fuel, increased emissions, congestion on city streets and decrease in productivity. The study by IBM points out that “drivers in Nairobi averaged 31.7 minutes in their longest search for a parking spot, and commuters in Bangalore, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Madrid, Mexico City, Paris and Shenzhen all reported means significantly above the worldwide average. Seventeen percent of drivers in Milan and Beijing and 16 percent of drivers in Madrid and Shenzhen spent 31 to 40 minutes looking for parking”.

Parking problems are turning out to be ubiquitous and growing at an alarming rate in every major city in India, causing challenges for city administrations and traffic authorities and lack of technology in parking ecosystem keeps on elevating this problem on a daily basis. Absence of real-time parking information for drivers has emerged as key problem for approximately 30 million Indian commuters across major cities. As per a study done by Frost & Sullivan (2015), a commuter in Delhi spends an extra 80+ hours driving more than 150 miles more every year looking for parking spaces. This in turn has a cascading effect such as wasting more than a million gallons of fuel during peak hours, burning more CO2, spending around 250 hours more in traffic congestion every year.

Increasingly, Cities across the world are effectively adopting innovative strategies that promote ‘value for money’ by ‘doing more with less’ and addressing parking challenges by leveraging technological advancements. The Frost & Sullivan Study[3] suggests that ‘smart parking’ is going to be increasingly associated with various modes of travel and “involve multiple stakeholders from the automotive, telecommunication and infrastructure industries" 

Cities are providing information related to real-time status of every parking spot, helping drivers find a free one, pay directly from their phone and all of these through mobile apps. Given the increasingly high usage of mobile applications in India, smart parking solutions based on mobile app can emerge as a key solution for Indian Smart Cities as part of their larger goal to improve urban mobility and explore dependable revenue generation models.

·       Concept of sensor-based parking management

The sensor-based smart parking initiative employs a simple concept where individual sensors are placed in between the parking slot. Whenever a car gets parked in the parking slot (both on-street & off-street), it is detected by the sensor. The information from the sensors are relayed to wi-fi receivers, which in turn stores it in the server regarding the current place occupied by the car. This is same in the case when the car leaves the parking space.

The information relayed from each sensor is sent to a mobile phone app, which provides drivers with a real-time map of free spaces. The mobile app also allows a driver to reserve a parking spot in a convenient parking lot, based on their preferences, traffic conditions and availability of public transport. Subsequently based on the parking tariff, the payment of parking fees is facilitated through the mobile app, thereby reducing the need for cash payments.

As a result, this significantly cuts down the amount of time spent searching for parking spaces and, crucially, reduces environmental impacts resulting from congestion and emissions in urban areas.

The introduction of sensor-based smart parking systems has potential win-win scenarios for all stakeholders in the urban parking ecosystem within Indian Cities:

Citizens: The sensor-controlled parking management system provides citizens with statistical and real-time data to effortlessly locate the current parking space availability or availability at a certain time of day. The driver gets detailed information about occupied and free spaces available in the parking area through a mobile application and thereafter is able to book the desired parking slot by making a payment using the mobile app. The parking rates and standard policies for each location can be accessed by the driver through the mobile app.

City Administration: The principal benefit of a sensor-based smart parking initiative for city administration is provision of better parking management and its impact on traffic management and public transport management as a result of improved traffic flow, less congestion, and better mobility.  The City administration is expected to play the role of an enabler of infrastructure such as sensors and Wi-Fi equipment and also act as the key entity for deciding the governance and implementation of the infrastructure required for the sensor-based smart parking framework within its area. The privacy and confidentiality of public information and its usage is also regulated by city administration. The initiative empowers city administrators to track payment and overstay violations, get instant information on parking occupancy, revenue generation and provide optimum parking capacity at a lower investment than the other solutions presently available.

Service Providers: They are responsible for developing the software and technology architecture for provision of parking spaces. Service providers are also able to generate detailed descriptive reports and also forecast informative insights that aid in the development of future parking management strategies for city administrators.  Reliable application programming interfaces (APIs) need to be in place so as to offer services to consumers through a variety of mediums (web/ mobile phone apps).

·       Key Outcomes of a sensor-based smart parking management

The fundamental objective behind sensor-based smart parking is about augmenting service levels for citizens, thereby improving the urban environment, optimizing parking space usage, enhanced revenues through dynamic pricing and promotion of intermodal travel for citizens.

In conclusion :

Smart Parking is one key tool in mitigating the transportation issue by optimizing usage of the parking assets in a city. In the process, it makes the city more efficient and less polluting, as it reduces unnecessary movement of vehicles which are searching for parking and also reduces random parking that leads to roads being blocked which in turn reduces the average speed of vehicles. Any modern city that is desirous of transforming into a smart city, must adopt Smart Parking, as part of its overall transportation solution.

---

[1] 2014 Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, Smart City – Mission Statement & Guidelines

[2] 2011 IBM, Global Parking Survey of 20 Cities                                                                                                      

[3] 2015 Frost & Sullivan, Strategic Analysis of Smart Parking Market in Europe and North America

Extreme Automation

We are rapidly moving into an era where the pace of automation is highly accelerated. The physical space is quickly getting hooked on to the cyberspace, contributing to this phenomenon that I am calling as Extreme Automation.

Extreme Automation is emanating from every process being transformed into a highly automated process, enabled by the fact that every thing has the ability to talk to the cyberspace. This allows elimination of any human intervention in entire end to end processes, as data is picked up automatically from objects such as trucks and machines and is fed into the process, which in turn is able to instruct other objects such as packaging machines, 3D printers, driverless trucks etc to complete the process.

Any decision making that is required, such as in driving a vehicle, is being taken over by cognitive technologies.

This complete elimination of human intervention in the process of delivery of products or services, is the manifestation of Extreme Automation.

Extreme Automation is what is driving the 4th Industrial Revolution. It will also drive tectonic shifts in the jobs market, as it would lead to sudden massive job destruction, which will lend very little time to the labour market to retrain in the higher level skills that would be required. Moreover, it is a question mark if in the transformed scenario, if that many high level jobs would be required which would compensate for the job loss. That would in turn lead to a collapse in demand in the economy as people will stop having disposable incomes.

Clearly, Extreme Automation will lead to a painful churn in the economy and the society.

Extreme Automation will be the single most defining moment for this century. It will define the direction in which human society will evolve and how the clash of demographics will be resolved wherein economies such as India and Africa, which were poised to leverage the demographic dividend, will find their demographic profile to be a liability and economies such as China, Japan and Europe, with their declining demographic profile, will find it relatively easier to navigate the challenges arising out of Extreme Automation. 

It will also usher in an era where design and content will be the wealth generators and everything will be digital, everything will be a service. And this change will begin to happen within the next five years with the maturing of the fundamental technologies for Extreme Automation - cognitive, IOT, driverless vehicles and robotic process automation operating in an environment of pervasive compute and pervasive communication infrastructure.

The opportunities from such a transformation will also limited by only the combined imagination of humanity. Imagine agriculture being done by robots, and the harvested produce getting automatically processed, cooked and delivered on your plate by a series of automation, based on your wish of what you want to eat on that day, all powered by fully depreciated solar power plants..it will be a bold new era.

Concept firat published at https://twitter.com/jaijit/status/731423430759882752

Imperatives for Technological Sovereignty for a credible Indian defence ecosystem

Published in Salute magazine. Online version at http://www.salute.co.in/imperatives-for-technological-sovereignty-for-a-credible-indian-defence-ecosystem/

IMPERATIVES FOR TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY FOR A CREDIBLE INDIAN DEFENCE ECOSYSTEM

As is now well accepted, conflicts are fast moving away from being played out in the form of contact warfare to non-contact warfare which includes cyberwarfare, economic warfare, resource war (water, energy etc), social warfare and other such mechanisms of inflicting debilitating loss to adversaries.

In recent times, one has seen one nation state waging “war” against an individual (as in the case of Wikileaks) by prohibiting Internet payment gateways that were operating under the nation state’s sovereignty, to deny payments/ contributions sent to this individual. Such a move squeezed out the individual’s financial supply, thereby crippling his ability to continue with his activities that were deemed anti-national. Given the fact that most payment mechanisms, especially the Internet and credit/debit card payment gateways are virtually under the control of one single nation state, the same techniques could be used against nations that are perceived to be hostile against the said nation state. Similar examples exist for the other kinds of warfare, highlighted in the previous paragraph.

This article focusses especially on the aspect of what is popularly referred to as cyber warfare, but which may not be necessarily played out solely in the cyber space. A good example, which is also a watershed moment for global cyber warfare, was the cyber-bombing of the nuclear centrifuges of Iran at Natanz, reportedly on around 2010 CE. The “weapon”, a “worm” in the cyber attack parlance, actually was delivered in an offline manner, purportedly traveling through mechanisms such as pen drives, to access the control systems of the Iranian nuclear centrifuges, apparently making the centrifuges to spin faster into self destruction, decidedly significantly degrading Iran’s nuclear capability. The control systems of the Iranian nuclear centrifuges were clearly not connected to the Internet, which is why the worm attack cannot technically be called a “cyber attack”.

It is worth observing how the worm, named as Stuxnet, spread. The worm targeted machines having Microsoft operation system. From there, it targeted Siemens Step7 software, which is also based on Windows operating system and is used for controlling industrial control systems, including nuclear centrifuges. Finally, it attacked the PLC’s (Programmable Logic Controllers) that control the behaviour of the machines, in this case the machines being the nuclear centrifuges (ref. http://spectrum. ieee.org/ telecom/security/the-real-story-ofstuxnet).

One would tend to deduce from the above and from the available information from the public domain, that it required multiple nation states, and corporations under their sovereignty, to work together to be able to create such a sophisticated cyber weapon. Also, clearly, the attack was conceived and led by one country that had ‘Technological Sovereignty’ on technologies owned and created by companies that are operating under the regulatory jurisprudence of other countries. So the lead country need not themselves own the technologies. The lead country merely needs to have ‘Technological Sovereignty’ to be able to launch such an audacious attack.P oint to note is that the Stuxnet worm is only 500 KB in size and is not widely available to be modified and used for other kinds of attacks.

It is thus clear that Technological Sovereignty is an imperative for achieving a credible defence or even offence setup in a fast emerging scenario where more and more of warfare will be non-contact in nature. An obvious question that this throws up is, where does a nation get the “weapons” and the defence systems for this new kind of warfare? Many of the key technologies for fighting noncontact warfare will not be available in the global “arms” market, and even if they are available, they could be compromised. It would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to check whether the high technology being provided to Indian armed forces is compromised or not. As an example, a “worm” for cyberwarfare, if at all available in the global “arms” market, will be impossible to check to see if it can potentially damage Indian assets once they are unleashed in cyberspace.

The issue is not just about cyber warfare, but about the whole range of smart technologies, including radars, missile control systems etc. The time tested military strategy of infiltrating adversary command and control structure has morphed into using cyber warfare to infiltrate the adversary’s “intelligent” command and control systems. That is, wherever equipment uses software based intelligence to manage, that intelligence can be compromised by cyber weapons such as worms, viruses and other kinds of malware.

More importantly, imagine the impact on the economy in general, and the defence logistics in particular, if the “.in” Top Level Domain (TLD) is deleted from the Internet root servers. Such a move would cripple the economy and severely restrict the ability of the Indian defence forces to respond to a strategic situation. It would be worthwhile to mention at this stage that India has minimal control, if not no control, over the root servers. In other words, India has no technological sovereignty over the theatre where cyber warfare gets played out. Thus an obvious way forward for India as a nation is to build the ecosystem of technological sovereignty which will strengthen its capability envelope in cyber warfare.

This capability is not restricted to developing a regiment of cyber warriors. It is a uni-dimensional view of the new warfare. It involves a larger play in the key areas of the global technological value chains. That positioning will be the key to having the tools for protecting India’s interests from a strategic perspective. This would pave the way for India to be able to exercise a reasonable level of technological sovereignty. If such technological sovereignty is achieved, it would also have spin off effects on the Indian economy and could significantly contribute to India becoming a leading global economy.

Technology is also something which is zealously protected by each nation so that it can continue to retain its technological and strategic defence edge. The level of technology available has a direct impact on the capabilities of a countries’ armed forces and Indian armed forces are no exception to that. India would find it increasingly difficult to respond to future warfare due to limited availability of the cyber weapons. It is important to note that these weapons are asymmetrical in nature, and smaller nations too can inflict unacceptable and disproportionate damage to a larger and stronger opponent. In that manner, even a high school kid, can inflict unacceptable and disproportionate damage to a nation, using these weapons. The scenario, wherein the adversary is not a matured nation whose foreign policies can be tracked and analysed, but a rogue terrorist group can well be imagined. So how does India get Technological Sovereignty?

A series of annual seminars have been held to discuss this question, under the banner of National Conclave on Technological Sovereignty. In each of the seminars held, progressive knowledge has been gained and way forward discussed and key recommendations accordingly worked out. The seminars have helped formulate implementable institutional mechanisms and have contributed in maturing the thought process for strengthening of the defence procurement process. It is now the right time to formulate the potential process for implementing the said mechanisms, which can be put forth to the government and other stake holders to take the nation forward to the path of achieving technological sovereignty.

India still imports about 70 percent of its defence requirements and is now the largest importer of defence equipment in the world. Imports are primarily in technology intensive fields like avionics, high end metallurgy, ICT based systems etc. Efforts to reduce imports have stuttered and tangible results of our polices to be self-reliant are not forthcoming. Problems remain in organisation structures, policies, lack of defence industrial base etc. Selfreliance, in addition to decreasing our import bill, substantially increases the strategic defence capability of the nation in the new evolving warfare tactics. A well organised defence industrial base with supporting organisation structure will enable India to do ‘Technology Management’ as per our needs and to meet our strategic objectives.To achieve the above in a time bound manner, we need to aggressively work towards establishing an institutional structure and a vibrant defence industrial base.One of the probable institutional structures proposed in these deliberations is as under :-.

The proposed institutional setup encompasses the spirit of achieving technological sovereignty for the country. The autonomous body, along with expertise from the private sector, should facilitate creation of technologies and conceptualise future warfare scenarios for the Indian military and identify technologies that are required to be acquired or developed, based upon an agreed upon roadmap. It could be incubated under a larger initiative that I would refer to as “National Technology Sovereignty Mission”.

The National Technology Sovereignty Mission will have to utilise‘Technology Management’ as an important facet of its functioning. Technology continues to be seen in a piecemeal manner. To fully exploit the potential of technology and to ensure that one continues to remain technologically superior, ‘Technology Management’ is the way forward which will result in efficient utilisation of scarce funding and resources for getting biggest bang for one’s bucks. Defence technologies being capital intensive, would involve large financial investments with no ‘assured orders’ and a No Commitment No Cost’ (NCNC) approach to trials, which may lead to sunk costs in such projects.The defence procurement procedure and structures therefore must ensure a level playing field between industry, DPSUs and foreign vendors. Procurement processes that are adopted by technologically advanced nations, such as the USA, need to be studied and relevant elements may need to be incorporated into the Indian defence procurement process.

India has a limited state of the art technology defence industrial base. There is an urgent need to fast track the establishment of an industrial base which can support the Armed Forces by providing them cutting edge technologies. Ideas which can be implemented are as above:-
• Economic Zones. On the lines of Special Economic Zones, we need to have Defence Economic Zones with the primary idea of incentivizing industry to establish such production and manufacturing which are based on research and produce the latest technology systems for the military, in consultation with the armed forces. Having a booming defence industrial base will have spinoff effects on the country’s economy as also increase the country’s GDP.
• Incentivising Research and Development. Defence technology research involves high risks, significant incubation time and high cost infrastructure requirements. To give adequate incentives to genuine ideas and enhance defence technologies proliferation it is essential to evolve a structure akin to DARPA of USA to promote research by academia, industry and think-tanks.
• It is also important to evolve a defence manufacturing policy that promotes larger private sector involvement in high-technology based defence requirements. It may be a good idea to have defence manufacturing policy at the state level also so that states can provide the necessary impetus to defence manufacturing dovetailing into their existing industrial policies. Such a defence manufacturing policy would also contribute significantly to job creation at the state level.

In conclusion, it is urgent and imperative to arrive at workable recommendations based on issues discussed in this paper, and all the more important to convert them into reality in order to ensure that the Indian Military continues to be a fighting force to reckon with. Since the nature of warfare is rapidly changing, it is absolutely critical that the above proposed institutional framework for collaboration between the Indian military, Indian industry, non-Indian vendors, funding bodies, academia and think tanks is brought into existence as soon as possible.In the meantime, it is important to rationalise the procurement process in order to strengthen the Indian defence industry and to ensure that the Indian defence industry invests for the long-term into the technologies that are required by the Indian military.

Cognitive Cities

Leadership in times of High Expectations