Saturday, May 14, 2016

Extreme Automation

We are rapidly moving into an era where the pace of automation is highly accelerated. The physical space is quickly getting hooked on to the cyberspace, contributing to this phenomenon that I am calling as Extreme Automation.

Extreme Automation is emanating from every process being transformed into a highly automated process, enabled by the fact that every thing has the ability to talk to the cyberspace. This allows elimination of any human intervention in entire end to end processes, as data is picked up automatically from objects such as trucks and machines and is fed into the process, which in turn is able to instruct other objects such as packaging machines, 3D printers, driverless trucks etc to complete the process.

Any decision making that is required, such as in driving a vehicle, is being taken over by cognitive technologies.

This complete elimination of human intervention in the process of delivery of products or services, is the manifestation of Extreme Automation.

Extreme Automation is what is driving the 4th Industrial Revolution. It will also drive tectonic shifts in the jobs market, as it would lead to sudden massive job destruction, which will lend very little time to the labour market to retrain in the higher level skills that would be required. Moreover, it is a question mark if in the transformed scenario, if that many high level jobs would be required which would compensate for the job loss. That would in turn lead to a collapse in demand in the economy as people will stop having disposable incomes.

Clearly, Extreme Automation will lead to a painful churn in the economy and the society.

Extreme Automation will be the single most defining moment for this century. It will define the direction in which human society will evolve and how the clash of demographics will be resolved wherein economies such as India and Africa, which were poised to leverage the demographic dividend, will find their demographic profile to be a liability and economies such as China, Japan and Europe, with their declining demographic profile, will find it relatively easier to navigate the challenges arising out of Extreme Automation. 

It will also usher in an era where design and content will be the wealth generators and everything will be digital, everything will be a service. And this change will begin to happen within the next five years with the maturing of the fundamental technologies for Extreme Automation - cognitive, IOT, driverless vehicles and robotic process automation operating in an environment of pervasive compute and pervasive communication infrastructure.

The opportunities from such a transformation will also limited by only the combined imagination of humanity. Imagine agriculture being done by robots, and the harvested produce getting automatically processed, cooked and delivered on your plate by a series of automation, based on your wish of what you want to eat on that day, all powered by fully depreciated solar power plants..it will be a bold new era.

Concept firat published at https://twitter.com/jaijit/status/731423430759882752

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Imperatives for Technological Sovereignty for a credible Indian defence ecosystem

Published in Salute magazine. Online version at http://www.salute.co.in/imperatives-for-technological-sovereignty-for-a-credible-indian-defence-ecosystem/

IMPERATIVES FOR TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY FOR A CREDIBLE INDIAN DEFENCE ECOSYSTEM
dr-jaijit-bhattacharya

As is now well accepted, conflicts are fast moving away from being played out in the form of contact warfare to non-contact warfare which includes cyberwarfare, economic warfare, resource war (water, energy etc), social warfare and other such mechanisms of inflicting debilitating loss to adversaries.

In recent times, one has seen one nation state waging “war” against an individual (as in the case of Wikileaks) by prohibiting Internet payment gateways that were operating under the nation state’s sovereignty, to deny payments/ contributions sent to this individual. Such a move squeezed out the individual’s financial supply, thereby crippling his ability to continue with his activities that were deemed anti-national. Given the fact that most payment mechanisms, especially the Internet and credit/debit card payment gateways are virtually under the control of one single nation state, the same techniques could be used against nations that are perceived to be hostile against the said nation state. Similar examples exist for the other kinds of warfare, highlighted in the previous paragraph.

This article focusses especially on the aspect of what is popularly referred to as cyber warfare, but which may not be necessarily played out solely in the cyber space. A good example, which is also a watershed moment for global cyber warfare, was the cyber-bombing of the nuclear centrifuges of Iran at Natanz, reportedly on around 2010 CE. The “weapon”, a “worm” in the cyber attack parlance, actually was delivered in an offline manner, purportedly traveling through mechanisms such as pen drives, to access the control systems of the Iranian nuclear centrifuges, apparently making the centrifuges to spin faster into self destruction, decidedly significantly degrading Iran’s nuclear capability. The control systems of the Iranian nuclear centrifuges were clearly not connected to the Internet, which is why the worm attack cannot technically be called a “cyber attack”.

It is worth observing how the worm, named as Stuxnet, spread. The worm targeted machines having Microsoft operation system. From there, it targeted Siemens Step7 software, which is also based on Windows operating system and is used for controlling industrial control systems, including nuclear centrifuges. Finally, it attacked the PLC’s (Programmable Logic Controllers) that control the behaviour of the machines, in this case the machines being the nuclear centrifuges (ref. http://spectrum. ieee.org/ telecom/security/the-real-story-ofstuxnet).

One would tend to deduce from the above and from the available information from the public domain, that it required multiple nation states, and corporations under their sovereignty, to work together to be able to create such a sophisticated cyber weapon. Also, clearly, the attack was conceived and led by one country that had ‘Technological Sovereignty’ on technologies owned and created by companies that are operating under the regulatory jurisprudence of other countries. So the lead country need not themselves own the technologies. The lead country merely needs to have ‘Technological Sovereignty’ to be able to launch such an audacious attack.P oint to note is that the Stuxnet worm is only 500 KB in size and is not widely available to be modified and used for other kinds of attacks.

It is thus clear that Technological Sovereignty is an imperative for achieving a credible defence or even offence setup in a fast emerging scenario where more and more of warfare will be non-contact in nature. An obvious question that this throws up is, where does a nation get the “weapons” and the defence systems for this new kind of warfare? Many of the key technologies for fighting noncontact warfare will not be available in the global “arms” market, and even if they are available, they could be compromised. It would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to check whether the high technology being provided to Indian armed forces is compromised or not. As an example, a “worm” for cyberwarfare, if at all available in the global “arms” market, will be impossible to check to see if it can potentially damage Indian assets once they are unleashed in cyberspace.

The issue is not just about cyber warfare, but about the whole range of smart technologies, including radars, missile control systems etc. The time tested military strategy of infiltrating adversary command and control structure has morphed into using cyber warfare to infiltrate the adversary’s “intelligent” command and control systems. That is, wherever equipment uses software based intelligence to manage, that intelligence can be compromised by cyber weapons such as worms, viruses and other kinds of malware.

More importantly, imagine the impact on the economy in general, and the defence logistics in particular, if the “.in” Top Level Domain (TLD) is deleted from the Internet root servers. Such a move would cripple the economy and severely restrict the ability of the Indian defence forces to respond to a strategic situation. It would be worthwhile to mention at this stage that India has minimal control, if not no control, over the root servers. In other words, India has no technological sovereignty over the theatre where cyber warfare gets played out. Thus an obvious way forward for India as a nation is to build the ecosystem of technological sovereignty which will strengthen its capability envelope in cyber warfare.

This capability is not restricted to developing a regiment of cyber warriors. It is a uni-dimensional view of the new warfare. It involves a larger play in the key areas of the global technological value chains. That positioning will be the key to having the tools for protecting India’s interests from a strategic perspective. This would pave the way for India to be able to exercise a reasonable level of technological sovereignty. If such technological sovereignty is achieved, it would also have spin off effects on the Indian economy and could significantly contribute to India becoming a leading global economy.

Technology is also something which is zealously protected by each nation so that it can continue to retain its technological and strategic defence edge. The level of technology available has a direct impact on the capabilities of a countries’ armed forces and Indian armed forces are no exception to that. India would find it increasingly difficult to respond to future warfare due to limited availability of the cyber weapons. It is important to note that these weapons are asymmetrical in nature, and smaller nations too can inflict unacceptable and disproportionate damage to a larger and stronger opponent. In that manner, even a high school kid, can inflict unacceptable and disproportionate damage to a nation, using these weapons. The scenario, wherein the adversary is not a matured nation whose foreign policies can be tracked and analysed, but a rogue terrorist group can well be imagined. So how does India get Technological Sovereignty?

A series of annual seminars have been held to discuss this question, under the banner of National Conclave on Technological Sovereignty. In each of the seminars held, progressive knowledge has been gained and way forward discussed and key recommendations accordingly worked out. The seminars have helped formulate implementable institutional mechanisms and have contributed in maturing the thought process for strengthening of the defence procurement process. It is now the right time to formulate the potential process for implementing the said mechanisms, which can be put forth to the government and other stake holders to take the nation forward to the path of achieving technological sovereignty.

India still imports about 70 percent of its defence requirements and is now the largest importer of defence equipment in the world. Imports are primarily in technology intensive fields like avionics, high end metallurgy, ICT based systems etc. Efforts to reduce imports have stuttered and tangible results of our polices to be self-reliant are not forthcoming. Problems remain in organisation structures, policies, lack of defence industrial base etc. Selfreliance, in addition to decreasing our import bill, substantially increases the strategic defence capability of the nation in the new evolving warfare tactics. A well organised defence industrial base with supporting organisation structure will enable India to do ‘Technology Management’ as per our needs and to meet our strategic objectives.To achieve the above in a time bound manner, we need to aggressively work towards establishing an institutional structure and a vibrant defence industrial base.One of the probable institutional structures proposed in these deliberations is as under :-.

The proposed institutional setup encompasses the spirit of achieving technological sovereignty for the country. The autonomous body, along with expertise from the private sector, should facilitate creation of technologies and conceptualise future warfare scenarios for the Indian military and identify technologies that are required to be acquired or developed, based upon an agreed upon roadmap. It could be incubated under a larger initiative that I would refer to as “National Technology Sovereignty Mission”.

The National Technology Sovereignty Mission will have to utilise‘Technology Management’ as an important facet of its functioning. Technology continues to be seen in a piecemeal manner. To fully exploit the potential of technology and to ensure that one continues to remain technologically superior, ‘Technology Management’ is the way forward which will result in efficient utilisation of scarce funding and resources for getting biggest bang for one’s bucks. Defence technologies being capital intensive, would involve large financial investments with no ‘assured orders’ and a No Commitment No Cost’ (NCNC) approach to trials, which may lead to sunk costs in such projects.The defence procurement procedure and structures therefore must ensure a level playing field between industry, DPSUs and foreign vendors. Procurement processes that are adopted by technologically advanced nations, such as the USA, need to be studied and relevant elements may need to be incorporated into the Indian defence procurement process.

India has a limited state of the art technology defence industrial base. There is an urgent need to fast track the establishment of an industrial base which can support the Armed Forces by providing them cutting edge technologies. Ideas which can be implemented are as above:-
• Economic Zones. On the lines of Special Economic Zones, we need to have Defence Economic Zones with the primary idea of incentivizing industry to establish such production and manufacturing which are based on research and produce the latest technology systems for the military, in consultation with the armed forces. Having a booming defence industrial base will have spinoff effects on the country’s economy as also increase the country’s GDP.
• Incentivising Research and Development. Defence technology research involves high risks, significant incubation time and high cost infrastructure requirements. To give adequate incentives to genuine ideas and enhance defence technologies proliferation it is essential to evolve a structure akin to DARPA of USA to promote research by academia, industry and think-tanks.
• It is also important to evolve a defence manufacturing policy that promotes larger private sector involvement in high-technology based defence requirements. It may be a good idea to have defence manufacturing policy at the state level also so that states can provide the necessary impetus to defence manufacturing dovetailing into their existing industrial policies. Such a defence manufacturing policy would also contribute significantly to job creation at the state level.

In conclusion, it is urgent and imperative to arrive at workable recommendations based on issues discussed in this paper, and all the more important to convert them into reality in order to ensure that the Indian Military continues to be a fighting force to reckon with. Since the nature of warfare is rapidly changing, it is absolutely critical that the above proposed institutional framework for collaboration between the Indian military, Indian industry, non-Indian vendors, funding bodies, academia and think tanks is brought into existence as soon as possible.In the meantime, it is important to rationalise the procurement process in order to strengthen the Indian defence industry and to ensure that the Indian defence industry invests for the long-term into the technologies that are required by the Indian military.

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Union budget 2016: Implications for ease of doing business

Union budget 2016: Implications for ease of doing business

(As published in LiveMint)
 
Government’s focus in terms of ease of doing business has been not just for corporate entities but also for ordinary people

To promote ‘Make in India,’ the budget proposes to grant residency status to foreign investors, beyond the current practice of giving them a five-year business visa. Photo: Hindustan Times
To promote ‘Make in India,’ the budget proposes to grant residency status to foreign investors, beyond the current practice of giving them a five-year business visa. Photo: Hindustan Times
The Union budget is sharply focused on a few key themes, which had already been spelt out by the finance minister earlier. The budget focuses on an efficient and effective government, rationalization of taxation, de-stressing the rural economy with an infusion of funds, soft and hard infrastructure with more than Rs.2.2 trillion in allocations for railways, roads, airports and waterways. It also focuses on human resource development and de-stressing the financial systems. It will be a welcome step to move from a fixed fiscal deficit target to a range, which will provide necessary fiscal space to the government. Overall, the budget’s emphasis is on building the fundamentals of the economy and economic and financial institutions.
The government’s focus in terms of ease of doing business has been not just for corporate entities but also for ordinary people, with attempts being made to remove irritants in their dealings with the government.
The overarching theme in terms of ease of doing business has been to minimize government and maximize governance. With that focus, the government has constituted a task force for rationalizing human resources in the government and in autonomous bodies.
Clearly, accelerating investments in infrastructure, both hard infrastructure and soft infrastructure, stands out as a key priority for the budget. This is also a critical enabler for ease of doing business.
Last year saw bids for the highest length of roads being awarded. The budgeted capital expenditure for railways was increased by 50% in 2014-15, compared to the year before that, and has been further increased by 20% this year. One of the key pre-requisites for healthy infrastructure growth is robustness of the financial institutions that can support investments. Unfortunately, the banking sector is laden with bad loans, and the private sector’s balance sheets are stressed. The move to recapitalize banks with a total budgetary outlay of Rs.25,000 crore would help enable the financial institutions to support infrastructure growth. In addition, the amendment to the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act would help banks recover loans from defaulters more efficiently.
The other key pre-requisite for infrastructure growth is enabling public-private partnerships (PPPs) and the steps taken to strengthen PPP through a proposed dispute resolution mechanism and provision for renegotiation of PPP contracts would help bring back pure PPP as a potential mechanism for funding large infrastructure projects.
There are also very significant outlays for rural infrastructure, especially on irrigation, with plans to make Indian agriculture less dependent on monsoons. This would help increase the irrigated land ratio from the current low of 47% of the total 141 million hectares of cultivable land.
The budget also trains its sights on other social infrastructure such as skill development infrastructure, quality primary education through more Navodaya schools, massive open online courses (MOOC) and so on.
It is also interesting to note a large number of digital infrastructure being proposed, including a very bold online national e-marketplace for farmers. It may have implementation challenges but would definitely be a critical pillar for farmer enablement and for making the rural economy healthier. This also enables ease of doing business for farmers. In conjunction, the price stabilization fund to enable procurement of pulses through a minimum support price (MSP) mechanism would help farmers get appropriate prices for their pulses, also giving them an incentive to grow pulses and not shift out to cereals.
Automation of 300,000 fair price shops and nationwide rollout of automated teller machines (ATMs) and micro-ATMs through the postal system would again make it easier for ordinary citizens to deal with the government.
One of the key pieces of this budget is the creation of a social security platform enabled through a bill for targeted delivery of subsidies, benefits and services using the Aadhaar framework. This would greatly ease access to subsidies for the deserving segments of the population.
Extending direct benefit transfers (DBT) to fertilizers subsidy, albeit on a pilot basis, is going to improve targeting of beneficiaries while reducing subsidy leakages.
To reduce its own internal efficiencies, it is proposed that Directorate General of supplies and Disposals will establish a technology-driven platform to facilitate procurement of good and services by the government. This will also help the industry in selling to the government more efficiently.
Coming to corporate entities, the Companies Act is being proposed to be amended to improve the ease of doing business and also to make the business environment for start-ups more conducive. It proposes to enable registration of companies in a single day. Industry has raised several issues, and we anticipate that these issues will be addressed through amendments to the Companies Act.
There are also a slew of changes proposed in foreign direct investment (FDI) and related policies. It is proposed to allow 49% FDI in insurance and pensions through the automatic route. Hundred percent FDI is being proposed to be allowed in Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) through the automatic route.
It is also proposed to increase the investment limit of foreign entities in Indian stock exchanges from 5% to 15%, on par with domestic institutions.
In order to obviate the need for prior approval of government for foreign portfolio investment (FPI), the existing limit of 24% for investment by FPIs into central public sector enterprises, other than banks, in stock exchanges is proposed to be increased to 49%. It is also proposed to increase the basket of FDI instruments to include hybrid instruments. This will provide greater flexibility for FDI and possibly increase the velocity of investments into India.
In addition, the budget also proposes to allow FDI in areas beyond the 18 specified non-banking financial company activities, using the automatic route.
To promote ‘Make in India,’ the budget proposes to grant residency status to foreign investors, beyond the current practice of giving them a five-year business visa. This will surely increase the emotional connect of foreign investors and make it easier for them to set up manufacturing units in India.
An interesting proposal is for a centre-state investment agreement that will ensure efficient and effective implementation of bilateral and multilateral treaties in the given federal structure.
The budget is, overall, in the right direction insofar as ease of doing business is concerned. However, it is not an issue that can be resolved in a single budget or through a single action, but is a process and a journey to which this budget contributes significantly.
The author is partner, infrastructure and government services, KPMG India.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Economic Survey 2016: FY17 will be more challenging

Economic Survey 2016: FY17 will be more challenging, says KPMG's Jaijit Bhattacharya

READ MORE ON » Jaijit Bhattacharya | India | fiscal deficit | Economic survey | Eco Survey 2016 | Eco survey

NEW DELHI: The coming financial year will be more challenging as advantage from low commodity prices will slowly diminish, without corresponding upswing in global demand, said Jaijit Bhattacharya, Partner - Infrastructure and Government Services, KPMG India.

Bhattacharya mentioned that Economic Survey 2016 depicts a reasonably comfortable macro-economic situation and confirms that ability of the Government to stick to the fiscal deficit targets. 
One may be staring at a larger current account deficit in the coming year unless India is able to significantly increase exports,however, Economic Survey confirms the long term growth prospects of India to be in the range of 8-10 per cent, said Bhattacharya

Budget 2016: Tax incentives vital for success of Make in India and other initiatives

By Jaijit Bhattacharya
India has sustained over 7 per cent growth in 2015-16, earning the economy the tag of being one of the world’s fastest growing large economies. However, predictions of weak global growth, the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the continued uncertainty in global crude oil prices, have put an additional burden on the Indian economy. Thus far, however, India’s macro-economic fundamentals remain stable, as evidenced by the continued investor confidence the economy presently enjoys.
Against this backdrop, the need of the hour is to address the impact of the unfavorable external conditions and the subsequent slowing down of exports, while domestic rural demand is suppressed on account of two consecutive years of deficient rainfall. Moreover, the stagnation in infrastructure, high-debt burdens of corporates, stressed banks due to high Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) and low indirect taxes due to poor corporate earnings, continues to weigh down the economy. These bottlenecks also limit the ability of the government to intervene through any significant spending, without potentially inducing inflation by violating the fiscal deficit target.
The upcoming Budget sets the stage for nuanced measures by the government, to help navigate the economy to a higher growth orbit. The economy currently needs a more cohesive push for reforms, while continuing along the path of fiscal consolidation.
Fiscal consolidation
While the government looks to meet the deficit target of 3.9 per cent set for the current year, the 3.5 per cent deficit target set for the next fiscal is quite ambitious. Given that challenges continue to plague the Indian economy, a robust fiscal consolidation plan can help it achieve higher economic growth and mitigate inflationary pressure. A minor relaxation in the deficit target, in order to accommodate foreseen additional expenditure, along with a strong focus on speeding up structural reforms, set the tone of expectations from the fiscal consolidation path to be adopted for the upcoming year by the Finance Minister.
Infrastructure support
For the government, announcing various transformational infrastructure initiatives comes with the challenge of financing them. The initial funding coupled with the continued capital infusion over time, requires that the central government takes the cost factor into consideration. Moreover, stressed assets in the infrastructure sector and the over-stretched balance sheets of infrastructure companies are deterring PPP investments.
While the increased allocation for capital expenditure needs to be allowed for, subsidy rationalisation could act as a possible financing channel. In addition, a predictable regulatory environment, transparent contractual framework, strengthened dispute resolution mechanism and measures to address the bankability of infrastructure projects with medium to long gestation periods, are critical for this sector.
In addition, measures to mitigate risk, such as a clear focus on strengthening the risk-sharing mechanism for PPP mode investments, can help revamp PPP and potentially boost investments.
Clarity on taxation
Multiple interpretations of the existing IT Act have given rise to varied understandings of its provisions and increased litigation. Providing clarity on the Act’s provisions and simplifying them are key to make the business environment more conducive. While the previous Union Budget did offer considerable forward-looking announcements, the Finance Minister might need to top it up with a few amendments this year to enhance clarity. In this regard, the recommendation put forth by the Easwar Committee regarding the lowering of the capital gains tax is likely to be important.
Further to the announcement of phased reductions in the corporate tax rate over the next few years, a structured plan to phase-out the exemptions is also crucial. A fine line of balance needs to be maintained, as tax incentives attract investors and are vital for the success of several initiatives such as Make in India.
A unified indirect tax system can also bring in several potential benefits, and thus, introducing (GST) is both urgent and critical. Considering the scale of systems and mechanisms that need to be in place to help enable its implementation, defining clear and penultimate timelines is key, and constitutes one of the most important expectations from the upcoming Budget.
Rural economy
In light of the two consecutive, insufficient monsoons and the resulting stress in rural regions across the country, destressing the sector and boosting rural demand is critical. Widening the irrigation and crop insurance coverage base, revising farm subsidies to attract investment and further consolidating the progress made in direct benefit transfers, can help build resilience in the sector. A substantial rise in allocation for the sector can go a long way in accommodating the much-needed reforms. Additionally, sustainable micro-irrigation schemes and rain-water harvesting and storage need to be revisited for both drought-proofing the economy and generating employment.
Flagship programmes
Initiatives like Make in India, Digital India, Swacch Bharat Abhiyan and the Smart Cities Mission have been initiated to help boost the economy while contributing to social upliftment. Thus, alleviating bottlenecks, both administrative and financial, with an aim to realise the objectives set out by these initiatives needs to be continually addressed.
Improved habitation and affordable and adequate housing for all is an ambition envisioned by the urban transformation initiatives such as Housing for All, Smart Cities and AMRUT. However, the lack of adequate infrastructure and connectivity and access to finance for construction developers, are amongst the various factors hindering efficiency in the affordable housing space.
Similarly, the duty inversion structure remains a concern for the domestic manufacturing industry. Addressing this issue, along with measures such as the creation of a credit system to allow 100 per cent credit for tax to be paid on inputs, might be beneficial for the Make in India initiative.
The newly launched Start-Up India, Stand-Up India initiative is a step in the right direction to nurture entrepreneurship development in the country. The initiative needs to be complemented with further measures such as waiving off the capital gains tax for investment in start-ups, mainly to attract foreign investment.
Financial, social inclusivity
While the ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY)’ has made substantial progress, the Atal Pension Yojana (APY) aiming to create a pensionless society, is yet to have significant impact. Thus, amendments to enhance APY is one such expectation from the Budget towards financial inclusion in society.
Similarly, measures to enhance the rural outreach of the Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency (MUDRA) is another important expectation. Enhancing the functioning of the Missing Middle Credit Scheme under which financial intermediaries funding micro entrepreneurs and units are given financial support, is necessary to make MUDRA more effective.
Another significant expectation from this year’s Budget is a road map for creating a food subsidy transfer mechanism. It is estimated that a direct benefit transfer scheme for LPG can help channelise around INR150 billion annually. Hence, a well-designed food subsidy transfer mechanism could have even more significant implications on financial savings for the government.
Phase of growth
In summary, the upcoming Budget is an opportunity for the government to reinforce its pro-reforms stand. The economy is looking forward to large scale reform measures being announced. Thought the expectations may be diverse and varied; the underlying need is to further India’s growth, while navigating a highly-constrained economic environment. Determined execution plans must follow the announcements of major reforms and initiatives, in order to boost business and investor confidence.
(The author is Partner – Infrastructure and Government Services, KPMG India. Views are personal)