Tuesday, November 26, 2019

India Vision 2035: Vision Ease of Living

Caselets of how India should be in Year 2035

After a night of celebrations on 31st Dec 2034, Aayush was scheduled to fly early morning from New Delhi to Bengaluru at 7:00 AM. He was reluctant to wake up early and was not sure if the flight will be on time due to weather conditions. He went off to sleep instructing his phone to wake him in time to catch the flight. As the case was, the flight did get delayed by 2 hours due to weather conditions and Ayush’s phone connected to the national flight system to get the information of the delay. So the phone woke up Ashish 2 hours later. The phone also plugged into the realtime city road congestion system and figured out that there is very little traffic in the city, as was expected on a new year day, and so automatically ordered for an autonomous cab to ferry Ayush from his home to the nearest metro, for Ayush to catch his flight on time.
Ayush was able to optimize his time and increase productivity while have a better quality of life by using the systems of a Cognitive Nation and a India Middleware.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

The Issue of Internet Governance


The Internet is a critical socio-economic enabler, which has deep impact on the economy, social order, law and order and the fabric of the nation itself. Its impact is only going to amplify as we move forward, especially when things start getting connected to each other and when the next generation of the Internet, IPV6 enabled Internet, starts getting rolled out. It would imply that your automobile can get connected to the cloud computing facility of the manufacturer for automatic analytics of the health of the automobile.
As per some estimates (refer note on Internet Governance at IIGF, New Delhi), the number of Internet-connected devices globally crossed 6 billion in 2011, and is expected to reach 15 billion, twice the size of the world’s population, before 2016. More than 6 billion mobile phone subscriptions are in use today, and the number is expected to cross 8 billion by 2016.  Mobile data traffic reached 597 petabytes in 2011, twice the amount of 2010, and is estimated to cross 10 exabytes by 2016. Broadband subscribers, estimated at 1 billion in 2011, are forecast to grow at 40% per annum, and reach 3.5 billion in 2016. As a large part of the growth is to take place in the developing countries of Asia, India can be expected to be a major component and beneficiary of this growth trajectory.      
The Internet started as a means of sharing information amongst scientist working in different institutions. From that, it is becoming – if not already become --the communications backbone of the world. It is a major economic driver, provides banking and other financial services to world’s business, provides a global market place and is replacing the conventional print and visual media. Internet is now ubiquitous in today’s world. Cutting off an enterprise or a country from the internet would have severe consequences.

This of course immediately also brings out the dangers that are emerging in such an interconnected world. The Internet can be used to bring down the telecommunications network of different countries, its banks and even its’ power grid. In Iran, we have seen the use of cyber weapons by the US and Israel taking out physically 10,000 centrifuges. If this had been done using a missile, it would have been considered an act of war. How should we then look at the Internet – also as a strategic space which then country’s need to protect? (ref. http://newsclick.in/india/internet-governance-and-itu-issues-baku-and-dubai by Prabir Purkayastha)
Therefore, a clear governance structure for the Internet, that is aligned to the long-term growth of the Internet and that is aligned to the interests of the economy and national security, is necessary for a healthy socio-economic functioning of a modern economy.
Internet Governance includes, but is not limited to, the following key issues:
[I] infrastructure and management of critical internet resources, including administration of the domain name system and Internet protocol addresses, administration of the root server system, technical standards, network neutrality, and multilingualisation; 
[ii] issues in the use of the Internet, including spam, network security and cybercrime; 
[iii] issues of wider impact such as Intellectual Property Rights [IPRs], freedom of expression, data protection and privacy rights, consumer rights and International Trade; and, 
[iv] developmental aspects, in particular, capacity-building.
From a socio-economic perspective, it impacts issues such as sovereignty over the Internet/ Free usage of Internet and interconnects, issues of Transborder data exchange and therefore its impact on Cloud Computing, issues of Data protection, the freedom of Internet, privacy, cyberwarfare and the issue of  global ban on use of Cyberweapons and cybersecurity.
Under the existing system of Internet governance, the International Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers [ICANN] performs two principal functions:
(a)  The Internet Assigned Names Authority [IANA] function whereby it controls entries to the authoritative Root Zone File of the Internet
(b)  The management of the Domain Name System [DNS] and the allocation of Top Level Domain [TLD] names. 
The function of allocation of TLD has been recently renewed as a perpetual contract, known as the Affirmation of Commitments between ICANN and the US Government. The IANA function has also been renewed for a seven-year period beginning 01 October 2012. The IANA function is overseen by the National Telecommunication and Information Administration under the US Department of Commerce. Technical standards are set by the Internet Engineering Task Force [IETF]. The central elements of the Internet's logical infrastructure, also called Critical Internet Resources, thus continue to be managed by private entities such as ICANN and IANA under contractual arrangements with the US Government (refer note on Internet Governance at IIGF, New Delhi.)

The United Nations established the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) in 2005 to discuss the issues of Global Internet Governance. However, UN/IGF does not have the organisational structure or the mandate to agree on decisions and the enforcement mechanism to implement them.

There is therefore an urgent need to bring in participation by Governments, especially from the developing countries, in order to establish a multilateral, transparent and democratic Internet governance mechanism that functions with the full involvement of Governments, the private sector, civil society and international organizations, without according a pre-eminent role to any single Government or organization. Government of India is hence rightly formulating the policies for engaging in the reforms process required for a global participative Internet Governance structure.

The Concept of Critical Digital Infrastructure

Digital is having an increasing impact on the three aspects of national security – (a) internal security, (b) external security and (c) personal security
India has faced a series of internal security challenges that has emanated from the digital world. Such challenges include spreading of rumours that led to significant law and order situations that led to lynching and death of many. Digital has the power to spread misinformation in an explosive manner, and in very short period of time. Digital also has the ability to bring down Critical Information Infrastructure.
However, more importantly, we have reached a stage where many digital services such as mapping, social media, e-commerce etc have become digital utilities which, if affected, can lead to loss of jobs and disruption in the economy. Imagine if Google maps is suddenly withdrawn from India. It will impact the app based cab industry and would render millions jobless. Similarly, if WhatsApp stops working, it will disrupt many business models and impact normal day to day life.
Hence, we can safely label such digital utilities as Critical Digital Infrastructure, which needs to be protected. 
Unfortunately, in India, much of the Critical Digital Infrastructure, is not under the control of Indian entities and under limited control of the Indian government.   

Thursday, July 11, 2019

My views on budget expectations on India Today TV

https://www.indiatoday.in/budget-2019/video/great-expectations-can-union-budget-fix-the-economy-1554234-2019-06-22

Sunday, July 7, 2019

My views on start up asks from Budget 2019

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1144892093040513024?s=09

Union Budget 2019 as published in Dainik Jagran (in Hindi)

बड़े सपने दिखाने वाला बजट

तमाम मौजूदा चुनौतियों का समाधान निकालने की कोशिश करता यह बजट भविष्य के लिए दिशा दिखाने वाला भी रहा

जयजीत भट्टाचार्य

प्रधानमंत्री मोदी के दूसरे कार्यकाल के पहले आम बजट के जरिये सरकार ने एक खास संदेश दिया है। पांच ट्रिलियन डॉलर यानी पांच लाख करोड़ रुपये की अर्थव्यवस्था बनाने का लक्ष्य इस संदेश के मूल में है। इसके लिए हालिया बजट में कई कदम उठाए गए हैं। हालांकि वस्तु एवं सेवा कर यानी जीएसटी जैसे अहम सुधारों और आर्थिक स्तर पर नियमित नीतियों के प्रवर्तन से बजट की महत्ता पहले जैसी भले न रह गई हो, मगर यह अभी भी अर्थव्यवस्था और उसे लेकर सरकार के रवैये की झलक जरूर पेश करता है। उसी कड़ी में तमाम वर्तमान चुनौतियों का समाधान निकालने की कोशिश करता यह बजट भविष्य के लिए दिशा दिखाने वाला भी रहा। इसमें सभी के लिए कुछ न कुछ करने का प्रयास तो किया है, लेकिन फिर भी कुछ मोर्चों पर कमी-बेशी रह गई।

इसमें कोई संदेह नहीं कि बीते कुछ समय से आर्थिक गतिविधियां सुस्त पड़ी हैं। तमाम आंकड़े इसकी पुष्टि करते हैं। इसके पीछे सबसे बड़ी वजह कर्ज के प्रवाह का अवरुद्ध होना यानी क्रेडिट फ्लो कमजोर होना है। बैंकों में गैर निष्पादित आस्तियों यानी एनपीए के बढऩे के कारण नए कर्ज देने में उनके हाथ बंध गए। इसके चलते क्रेडिट ग्र्रोथ का आंकड़ा 5.8 प्रतिशत पर रुक गया। ऐसे में कर्ज की रफ्तार बढ़ाने के लिए सरकार को तात्कालिक रूप से कदम उठाने की आवश्यकता थी। बजट में सरकार ने यह कदम उठाया। इसके तहत सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र के बैंकों को 70,000 करोड़ रुपये की पूंजी मुहैया कराई जाएगी। पुनर्पूंजीकरण के इस कदम के अलावा वित्त मंत्री ने गैर-बैंकिंग वित्तीय कंपनियों यानी एनबीएफसी को सशक्त बनाने का एलान किया है। इससे भी कर्ज के मोर्चे पर तंगहाली दूर होगी। सरकार नकद आरक्षित अनुपात यानी सीआरआर को कम करने की दिशा में भी कुछ कदम उठा सकती थी। हालांकि यह पूरी तरह सरकार के क्षेत्राधिकार में नहीं, बल्कि रिजर्व बैंक के दायरे में आता है। मगर इससे जुड़े कानून में संशोधन की मंशा दिखाकर सरकार रिजर्व बैंक को संदेश तो दे ही सकती थी।

सरकार ने पांच ट्रिलियन डॉलर की अर्थव्यवस्था बनाने की महत्वाकांक्षा व्यक्त की है। लोगों को सशक्त बनाए बिना यह संभव नहीं है। इसीलिए सरकार ने अंत्योदय पर पूरा ध्यान केंद्रित किया है। इसके तहत एक साथ कई मोर्चों पर कदम उठाया जाएगा जिससे ग्र्रामीण अर्थव्यवस्था को बहुत बड़ा संबल मिलेगा। इसमें कृषि एवं कृषि आधारित उद्योगों को मजबूत बनाए जाने का प्रस्ताव है। ग्र्रामीण इलाकों में सड़कों का जाल और तेजी से बिछाया जाएगा जिससे आवाजाही एवं सामान की ढुलाई और सुगम होगी। इसी तरह जलमार्गों पर ध्यान देने की सरकारी नीति भी बहुत उपयोगी कही जाएगी। इससे न केवल प्रदूषण कम होगा, बल्कि ऐसे तमाम रोजगार भी सृजित होंगे जिनमें अपेक्षाकृत कम कौशल की दरकार होती है। सरकार द्वारा वाटर ग्र्रिड और गैस ग्र्रिड बनाए जाने की घोषणाएं स्वागतयोग्य हैं। इसी तरह बुनियादी ढांचे में सौ लाख करोड़ रुपये का निवेश भी बाजी पलटने वाला साबित होगा।

सालाना 400 करोड़ रुपये टर्नओवर वाली कंपनियों के लिए कारपोरेट टैक्स की दर घटाकर 25 प्रतिशत करना भी उद्योग जगत के लिए एक बड़ी राहत है। पहले यह सीमा 250 करोड़ रुपये थी। इससे करीब 99.3 प्रतिशत कंपनियां कारपोरेट टैक्स की न्यूनतम दर के दायरे में आ गई हैं। इससे कंपनियों के पास नए निवेश के लिए ज्यादा गुंजाइश बनेगी और इसका असर रोजगार सृजन पर भी देखने को मिलेगा। वैसे भी किसी अर्थव्यवस्था की तरक्की में एक अहम पहलू यही होता है कि वहां करों की दर तार्किक बनाई जाए। ऐसे में इस दिशा में सरकार का यह कदम सही है।

सामाजिक सुरक्षा को लेकर भी सरकार बहुत गंभीर नजर आई। बजट में ग्र्रामीण और शहरी भारत दोनों पर बराबर ध्यान दिया गया है। इसमें किसानों और कारोबारियों के लिए पेंशन का प्रावधान खासा उल्लेखनीय है। देश के एक बड़े तबके को कृषि संबंधी गतिविधियों से बाहर निकालने के लिए प्रयासों की जरूरत है। वहीं खुदरा बाजार में बड़े खिलाडिय़ों के आने से छोटे कारोबारियों के लिए हालात मुश्किल हो रहे हैं तब हमें उनके लिए कुछ सामाजिक सुरक्षा के उपाय तो करने ही होंगे। ऊंची वृद्धि की ओर छलांग लगाने से पहले एक सुरक्षा घेरा बना लेना हमेशा उपयोगी साबित होता है।

अर्थव्यवस्था में पारदर्शिता बढ़ाने के लिए डिजिटल भुगतान को प्रोत्साहित करने में मोदी सरकार खासी सक्रिय रही है। इसी सिलसिले को और आगे बढ़ाते हुए बजट में एक खाते से सालाना एक करोड़ रुपये से अधिक लेनदेन पर दो प्रतिशत टीडीएस लगाने का प्रस्ताव है। प्रस्ताव के रूप में तो यह अच्छा कदम है, लेकिन लोग दूसरे खाते के माध्यम से इसका तोड़ निकाल लेंगे। हालांकि यह अच्छी पहल है और सरकार भविष्य में इस मोर्चे पर सख्त प्रावधान करके इसका लाभ उठाने की गुंजाइश खत्म कर सकती है।

इसी तरह स्टडी इन इंडिया भी एक महत्वाकांक्षी पहल है। मगर इसके लिए नियमों को आसान बनाने के साथ ही शोध एïवं अनुसंधान के मोर्चे पर भी हालात सुधारने होंगे। हालांकि नेशनल रिसर्च फाउंडेशन की स्थापना से इस मुहिम में कुछ मदद मिलेगी, लेकिन इसका पूरी तरह से लाभ उठाने के लिए हमें नामी-गिरामी अंतरराष्ट्रीय संस्थानों को भारत में उनके परिसर स्थापित करने की अनुमति देनी होगी। इससे न केवल विदेशी छात्रों को भारत में अध्ययन के लिए आकर्षित करने में मदद मिलेगी, बल्कि उच्च अध्ययन के लिए बड़ी तादाद में विदेश जाने वाले छात्रों को भी देश में पढ़ाई के लिए प्रोत्साहित किया जा सकेगा। इससे बड़े स्तर पर विदेशी मुद्रा की बचत हो सकती है जो हमारे छात्र विदेशों में जाकर खर्च करते हैं।
हालांकि मध्य वर्ग को राहत देने के लिए सरकार ने बेहद अमीर तबके पर सेस के साथ आयकर का बोझ बढ़ा दिया है। यह जरूर एक प्रतिगामी कदम दिखता है, क्योंकि इससे कर चोरी या दूसरे देशों में निवेश का चलन बढ़ सकता है। हालांकि वित्तीय तंत्र में बढ़ी पारदर्शिता और कई देशों के साथ सूचना विनिमय के समझौतों से ऐसी आशंकाएं कमजोर लगती हैं।

कुल मिलाकर सरकार ने बजट में कई ऐसे कदम उठाए हैं जो अर्थव्यवस्था में सुस्ती को दूर करने के साथ ही सामाजिक सुरक्षा सुनिश्चित करते हैं। फिर भी कर्ज प्रवाह को व्यापक रूप से सुगम बनाने और कृषि पर निर्भरता घटाने के विषय पर बजट मौन है। हमें यह ध्यान रखना होगा कि पांच ट्रिलियन डॉलर की अर्थव्यवस्था का सपना देश की साठ प्रतिशत आबादी को कृषि कार्यों से जोड़कर पूरा नहीं हो सकता। यहां तक कि ब्राजील और चीन जैसे हमारे समवर्ती देशों में भी समय के साथ कृषि पर निर्भरता घटी है। हमें भी ऐसा ही करना होगा। इसके लिए बजट में कोई ठोस योजना होती तो यह बढिय़ा बजट और भी बेहतर होता।

(लेखक सेंटर फॉर डिजिटल इकोनॉमी पॉलिसी रिचर्स के प्रेसिडेंट हैं)

Saturday, June 29, 2019

My views on start up asks from Budget 2019

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1144892093040513024?s=09

Digital India with India Today

https://www.indiatoday.in/digital-india-campaign/video/jaijit-bhattacharya-maharashta-panel-digital-india-campaign-445591-2016-09-12?jwsource=cl

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Monday, June 17, 2019

Need for Electrification of Highways using Electric Mules to solve the Electrification of Inter-city Transportation

Continuing with my concept of using electric trucks for reducing transportation costs and for Electrification of Highways using Electric Mules to solve the Electrification of Inter-city Transportation, below are the details of the policy measures required.

1.0  A set of pilot e-highway projects may be conceptualized for specified “toll sections” of prominent National Highway’s. Such pilot’s shall use electrical powered trailer mules to;
1.1  Enable use of electricity as the energy for travel of existing diesel trucks.
1.11 Create a framework that involves minimum infrastructure creation and minimum need for modification of existing vehicles
1.2  Enable the operation of the combined infrastructure by toll operators with digital management & payments.
1.3  Serve as an infrastructure template – that can be scaled up to required levels and be exported to other countries
1.4  Adoption of the Rivigo model https://rivigo.com may be considered – to improve quality of life of truck drivers & productivity of the transportation sector as well as reduce the Total Cost of Transportation (TCT)

2.0  The trailer mules shall be powered by overhead electricity supply system – based on existing well proven electrification technologies – ex: Railway/Metro systems.
2.1  The trailer mules can be manufactured by Indian automobile sector.
2.2  For smooth operation of such “mules”, appropriate facilities shall need to be created at specified locations on the national highways such that they are well integrated with the toll booth operations.
2.3 Trailer mule integration infrastructure needs to be created at the head of a highway and at the tail of the highway

3.0  The payback periods for these e-highway projects need to seen in the context of them being a national infrastructure that shall significantly reduce diesel consumption & thereby direct environmental pollution as well as reduction of gap in Current Account Deficit as oil imports constitute the single largest component of out imports

4.0  To expedite the pilot projects it is suggested that GoI creates a policy wherein Toll Operators can introduce the Electrified Highway plus Electric Mule infrastructure as a service to its toll road truck users. Since each highway can choose their own standards for implementation, so there is no need to setup standards for the first few implementations as there is no need for interoperability. Standards can be created after a few implementations. In parallel, a group may be constituted to handhold the interested toll operators to create this infrastructure. Government may provide incentive in the form of tax breaks, interest subvention and extension of the concessionaire period etc. The model needs to ensure that the price charged from the trucks for electric mule based transportation is significantly less than the fuel cost of the trucks for that stretch of highway.
5.0 The focus should be to have infrastructure innovation from an Indian perspective rather than force-fit concepts from western countries. It would also lead to very significant job creation and increase in efficiency of logistics in the country while also leading to increase in exports of good and services related to the new technology created.

The above is significant in the context that 40% of traffic moves on 2% of the roads that are constituted by national highways. So any electrification of the highways can potentially reduce 40% diesel consumption and hence reduce pollution, reduce cost of logistics and hence the competitiveness of the country and reduce the Current Account Deficit.

Monday, March 4, 2019

My views on currency depreciation last year on CNN TV18



https://www.news18.com/news/business/rupee-appreciates-but-experts-worried-about-further-slide-fuel-to-become-costlier-1875515.html

How Easy is it to really do Doing Business in India?

How Easy is it to really do Doing Business in India?


First appeared in Mint https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/j9Uew2P8hAynnV9dt42cxJ/Opinion--Contract-enforcement-needs-to-be-improved-on-war-f.html

It has been a long a arduous trek for India to move from a pathetic 142 ranking in 2015 in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking to the 77thrank this year. This is a very laudable achievement by any standards, especially given the complexities involved, including multiple governmental jurisdictions in India.

However, the World Bank’s methodology involves only two cities – Mumbai and Delhi. And hence, in the mammoth subcontinent of India, the World Bank’s ranking would not be representative of what the actual Ease of Doing Business in India would be. This is something that was well recognized by the Central government, which initiated a process of ranking of the States on the business process reforms achieved by them. Therefore, there was a broader based attempt by the government to spread the Ease of Doing Business beyond the two cities of Mumbai and Delhi.

But, as is the proverbial saying, the devil lies in the details. India has made impressive strides in areas such as “Trading across Borders”, wherein India’s rank has gone up from 146 to 80. Similarly, India’s ranking in “Dealing with Construction Permits” has surged from 129th to 52ndrank and India’s rank in “Getting Electricity” has shot up to 24th. However, since this change is limited to only the two cities of Delhi and Mumbai, where there are hardly any manufacturing entities being setup, it distorts the real picture of easy it may be to setup manufacturing facilities in India. The battery of approvals needed to start construction in a state, especially of a manufacturing entity, is not something that even large investments find it easy to handle, leave alone the more modest investors who may want to setup greenfield manufacturing.

Which brings us to the aspect of merely starting a business in India. Despite the many improvements in the process of “Starting a Business”, India is still at 137thrank out of 190. So as India improves, other countries are improving even more, making it challenging to move up the rank. More importantly, if we are not easy to start a business, then we are nipping many new businesses in their bud, and for whom the rest of ease of doing business becomes meaningless.

More importantly, legitimate businesses will find it difficult to operate in environments where there is a lack of contract enforcement. Contract enforcement is the lifeblood of private enterprise. Sadly, India stands at 164 rank out of 190 countries. As we observe business practices in India, there is significant disregard for upholding commercial contracts. Inspite of regulatory changes allowing dedicated commercial courts to be established by state governments, hardly any state has actually setup the commercial courts which could have helped in greater contract enforcement in the country. And contract enforcement is not just a challenge with other private sector entities but also with the government. Government contracts get modified or nullified post contract signing, leading to significant damage to shareholder value. This has especially been observed in the infrastructure sector, where concessionaire agreements have been summarily discarded, with the remarks that the concessionaire has made enough profits and need hence need not make more profits. This is against the spirit of the contract. If the concessionaire had made “enough” losses, would the government have stepped in and said that they have made enough losses and so government will step in make good further losses? Therefore, if contracts cannot be upheld, the risk of doing business in India goes up very significantly, which is what foreign enterprises who have recently entered India, are discovering. In addition, we are at 121strank in terms of “Paying Taxes”, which is also a reflection of corruption in the system at the lower levels.

This is also one of the key reasons why Indian capital has been regularly investing outside of India but has been shy of investing within India. 

So, if one finds it difficult to start a business and then finds it challenging to get into any commercial contract and enforce the contract, then the rest of the aspects of Ease of Doing Business become significantly less relevant. India therefore needs to bring in improvement in ease of “Starting a Business” and in “Contract Enforcement” on a war footing, to really make it easier for legitimate businesses to flourish in India and to generate jobs and bring in prosperity.


My views on Cryptocurrencies in CNN TV18

https://www.news18.com/videos/india/reporters-project-why-india-has-banned-cryptocurrencies-1980637.html

My views on Cryptocurrencies in India